Weighing the Best Picture prospects

This is some intriguing speculation (at Gold Derby)- the question is, how significant are the Golden Globes as a predictor?

Dave Karger recaps the derby parallels between "Hurt Locker" and "Brokeback Mountain" (4 years ago): 'Brokeback' managed the rare feat of winning Best Picture and Best Director at both the New York and Los Angeles film critics awards; so did 'Hurt Locker.' 'Brokeback' also picked up those two big prizes at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards; so did 'Hurt Locker.' 'Brokeback' won the trifecta of PGA, DGA, and WGA trophies; so did 'Hurt Locker. 'Brokeback' won 4 BAFTAs, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay; 'Hurt Locker' picked up 6 awards, including Best Film, Director, and Screenplay. And of course, 'Brokeback' lost the SAG cast award, and so did 'Hurt Locker.' (The main difference between the two films’ tallies is that 'Brokeback' did win four Golden Globes, including Best Drama and Best Director, while 'Hurt Locker' went 0 for 3.)

Here's some additional thought-provoking speculation (from Awards Daily), just a small portion of a longer entry that is well worth reading:

I said previously that this is starting to remind me of The Departed year. The big difference between The Hurt Locker and The Departed is that the Scorsese movie was, essentially, a popcorn movie that could be enjoyed by crowds. It also had the advantage of people saying things like “my favorite film is The Departed but it won’t win.” That is the magic phrase. That is what people should have been saying about Avatar, but since the web chatter was confident out of the gate that the film was now the Best Pic winner, the dialogue has changed to “Avatar’s winning best picture? But the Hurt Locker is much better.” Or “Up in the Air is so much better.” Or “Inglourious Basterds is so much better.”